A civil war and a famine: What’s happening in Ethiopia?
Global Politics
On June 10, 2021, the head of the World Food Programme (the food-assistance branch of the United Nations) appealed for immediate access to deliver life-saving assistance to Ethiopia’s Tigray region, where an ongoing fight between the government and regional forces has put some 350,000 people at the risk of famine.
The number of people affected by this famine is the worst in any country since 2011 when a famine had gripped Somalia.
The current situation
It is reported that an estimated one to two million people have been displaced from their homes due to the ongoing conflicts and more than 63,000 have fled to Sudan.
This is the direct result of the ongoing military conflict. Eritrean forces, who joined the conflict in support of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, have been accused of destroying property, burning crops and blocking food supplies for over a million people.
Two sides of the conflict
Since November 2020, there has been a conflict between the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahemed’s federal forces and the Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF) which is the ruling party of the northern region of the country.
The TPLF was formed by the Tigrayan people, a small but extremely influential minority in Ethiopia who enjoyed tremendous power from 1991 to 2018. The TPLF had also waged a war against Ethiopia’s neighbour Eritrea which went on from 1998 to 2000.
PM Abiy Ahmed
Things changed in 2018 when Abiy Ahmed from the Oromo Democratic Party(ODP) became the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Abiy also won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for the peace deal he signed to finally end the border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Abiy’s plans to reform the country’s judicial, economic and foreign policies put him in direct conflict with the TPLF from the start of his tenure. He also put some TPLF officials on trial for corruption, which further harmed the relationship.
The final straw
In August 2020, Abiy refused the TPLF’s demand to hold an election in the Tigray region, citing the pandemic as the reason. In defiance, the TPLF decided to no longer recognize Abiy’s government and went ahead with the elections. In response, Abiy restricted federal funding to the region, increasing the tension.
On November 4, 2020, the rebel forces attacked the national base in Tigray and the PM deployed troops against the rebels which saw the start of a civil unrest. On November 28, 2020, the government took over Mekelle (the capital of Tigray) and announced victory but the fighting continues till date.
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
A system used by the leading humanitarian aid agencies and governments to understand the scale of the hunger crisis and divides the scale into 5 phases. Phase 1 being minimal and Phase 5 being famine. Of the 5.5 million people who face food insecurity in Tigray — 350,000 are now in Phase 5. The reports also suggest that approximately 3 million people are in Phase 3 (crisis) and approximately 2.1 million people are in Phase 4 (emergency).
The world reacts
On June 12, 2021, US, historically an ally of Ethiopia, voiced concerns over how Abiy is handling the conflict in Tigray.
The G7 group has called for unimpeded access for aid workers to Ethiopia’s Tigray region and also demanded an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Eritrean troops.
Ethiopia’s response
Ethiopia, however, denies that there is a famine on the technicality that the catastrophic conditions are spread out across different parts of Tigray and the proportion of people in phase five did not reach 20% at any single location — the standard threshold for declaring famine.
It also denies the allegation that Ethiopian and Eritrean forces are deliberately blocking aid supplies to Tigray.
Why should the world be worried?
It does not look like the current crisis will stop in Tigray. As per a BBC analysis, food security is fast deteriorating in the neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar as well, and as the crisis continues, it will disrupt more and more livelihoods and worsen the situation. There are also warnings of escalating food needs in Sudan where a lot of civilians from Tigray have fled to.
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