Who should we hold accountable for the 2nd wave?
Covid-19
In the cacophony of the unfortunate and tragic calls for help on social media, we seem to have let emotions ride over our rationale in understanding the reasons for this Covid-19 surge. Although the Modi government deserves to be held accountable, it would be unfair to leave the other stakeholders scot-free.
Where did everyone drop the ball? Let’s discuss.
Is India’s oxygen demand more than its supply?
No. India produces 7500 MT of oxygen per day, which is more than our cumulative current demand. Yet we have been facing an oxygen crisis. Apart from politics and issues in estimating how much each state should be allocated by the centre, the problem has majorly been logistical where oxygen tanks haven’t been reaching hospitals on time. It’s either because goons in states are blocking them or just that the supply chain for these tankers has never been robust.
The most convenient solution for this would have been installing PSAs in hospitals themselves.
The hospitals
As per The Print, the Centre had allocated INR 200 Cr to set up plants in 162 hospitals back in Dec, but only 33 hospitals installed them. Why?
The vendors seemed to have faced “resistance” in hospital premises. “The usual response was there is no space. The real reason though was probably vested interests in continued procurement of oxygen rather than generating the entire requirement onsite,” as per a source of The Print. It’s hence puzzling that profiteering private hospitals in cities like Delhi, chose not to install a plant costing INR 50 lakhs, that could have been easily recovered in 18 months.
The state government
Health is in fact a state subject and the infrastructure has been lacking in most states. Moreover, states began to dismantle Covid facilities*. All because of a mistaken belief that the pandemic was over.
“So what if the beds were catching dust? They have lost precious time now in restarting the facilities in the 2nd wave” — as per a senior AIIMS doctor.
Of the hospitals which refused to install the PSAs, a good chunk were state government-run hospitals as well. In fact, state governments have been very notorious in the handling of law and order problems like oxygen tankers being stopped & hoarded at state borders.
*4 facilities in Delhi were shut down in Feb (including one with 10k beds in ITBP); of the 503 set up in UP last year, only 83 were functional in Feb and an 800-bed hospital in Pune was folded in January.
The opposition
With Opposition leaders creating unnecessary doubts over Covaxin in people’s minds, only 33% of the beneficiaries were willing to take the shot in January. The Opposition-ruled states of Punjab, Chhattisgarh and Kerala, had refused to use Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin. They had not changed their stance even after the manufacturer released interim data showing 81% vaccine efficacy in phase 3 clinical trial in March.
The central government
Yes, the buck stops here.
Let’s assume for once that the government was in fact ill-advised by its Covid Taskforce and that they did not present any pre-emptive steps to the government.
Was this enough for the central government to drop the ball entirely? To not just allow, but also promote, big scale religious gatherings, hold rallies without following social distancing norms, to open cricket stadiums with over 1 lakh visitors, to allow reconstruction of the Central Vista in the middle of a struggling capital?
The scientific community
No, this is not holding them accountable, but rather appreciating the fact that predicting a 2nd wave isn’t easy when extensive studies indicated that immunity levels may be higher in India. As per The Lancet Global Health, 20% Indians seem to have already been infected vs 7% in the US.
As per a survey conducted by the National Institute of Epidemiology in Chennai back in early January, more than 40% citizens in cities like Delhi & Mumbai seemed to have already been infected-causing them to predict that the worst was behind us and we would never reach the 1 lakh daily case numbers again.
As per The Lancet Global Health, 20% Indians seem to have already been infected vs 7% in the Americas. Such studies added fuel to the theory that immunity levels must be higher in India.
But did scientists in the country not predict a second wave?
As per the DST, the SUTRA model by IIT professors predicted a surge in cases with the peak as per them, reaching 1 lakh daily cases in mid-April. Their findings coupled with the new mutant variant B.1.167 were presented to the govt on Apr 2nd, but it must be noted that their predictions couldn’t have been more off.
There’s only one word to describe this: hubris. Riding on our apparent success in controlling the first wave, the Narendra Modi govt got ahead of itself in claiming to have “reached the end game”, underestimating the scale of second wave, and making questionable decisions in the wake of a disaster.
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